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The civil aviation market in China and globally is experiencing rapid growth. In 2019, the average number of flights taken per person per year in China was 0.47, and this is expected to double by 2035.

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus has no worries about orders for the next decade.

Data supports this. In 2023 alone, Airbus received 2,319 new orders for civil aircraft, with a net order number (orders adjusted for cancellations and changes) reaching 2,094, a historical high.

Currently, Airbus has a backlog of 8,598 aircraft orders, also at a historical best level. Compared to the delivery capacity of 735 aircraft in 2023, this means that Airbus will not have to worry about orders for at least the next ten years.

Therefore, ensuring supply has become Airbus's top priority, including in China. Airbus is currently building a second production line in Tianjin and enhancing its existing production capabilities.

With such a large aircraft market in China, there must be a production capacity to match. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told CarCaijing (ID: carcaijing) that in the future, Airbus's final assembly lines in China will contribute 20% of the production capacity, in line with the 20% share of the Chinese market in the global market.

The market includes civil aircraft and also the emerging low-altitude economy, where Airbus sees new growth opportunities in helicopters and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL).

The Chinese market is vast, and the aircraft production capacity must also be strong.

Airbus has surpassed Boeing for the fifth consecutive year, maintaining a steady momentum. In contrast, Boeing delivered 528 aircraft in 2023 and secured a net aircraft order volume of 1,314.The booming business of this European aircraft manufacturer is inseparable from the rapid growth of the civil aviation market in China and around the world. According to the latest plan of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), by 2035, the number of flights per capita per year is expected to exceed one—while in 2019, the number was 0.47, below the global average of 0.87 and far below the United States' 2.48. This implies that the figure will double by 2035.

Another important indicator in the CAAC's "New Era, New Journey: Writing a New Chapter for the Construction of a Transportation Strong Country in Civil Aviation" action outline is the aviation population. The aviation population refers to the number of people who have taken a flight, and by 2035, it is expected to double from the 2019 figure. Currently, it is widely estimated within the industry that about one billion people in China have not taken a flight, indicating a huge potential.

The progress of the civil aviation market is inseparable from the broader economic development context. As planned, by 2035, China will have essentially achieved modernization, with per capita GDP exceeding $25,000, at which time the demand for civil aviation travel will also significantly increase.

"To achieve this goal, China's civil aviation will also need a large number of new aircraft. According to Airbus's latest global market forecast, by 2042, China will require over 9,440 new aircraft for fleet renewal and growth," said Fu Li to the travel industry (ID: carcajing).

In 2023, Airbus delivered a total of 735 aircraft, 97 of which entered the Chinese market, accounting for 13%. In the future, Airbus hopes to continue to enhance its production capacity in China, aiming to increase the proportion to 20%.

In 2023, Airbus delivered 47 Airbus A320 series aircraft and 10 A350-900 aircraft to domestic customers in Tianjin. In addition, the Airbus Tianjin final assembly line also delivered 10 Airbus A320 series aircraft to overseas customers.

In response to the high demand, the second production line in Airbus Tianjin is under construction, with plans to be completed and officially operational by the end of 2025. At that time, Airbus will have 10 A320 series aircraft final assembly lines globally, with two in the United States, six in Europe, and two in Tianjin.

"Our final assembly line in China will contribute 20% of the production capacity, which aligns with the 20% market share that China holds in the global market. I believe that the second final assembly line in Tianjin will make a significant contribution to Airbus's global goal of producing 75 A320 series aircraft per month by 2026," Fu Li anticipated.

While advancing the construction of the second final assembly line, Airbus is also accelerating production. In 2024, Airbus plans to recruit 480 new employees in China, which is 20% of the current total number of employees in the country. These new employees will primarily support the operation of the second final assembly line in Tianjin and the Airbus aircraft full life cycle service center project located in Chengdu.As the process of localization deepens, supply chain cooperation is also intensifying. Currently, there are approximately 200 suppliers in China supporting the production of Airbus civil aircraft. For instance, Nanshan Aluminum Industry, headquartered in Shandong, delivered the first batch of A320 wing extrusion materials to Airbus's supply chain in 2022, marking the first time the Chinese aluminum extrusion industry exported aluminum alloy extrusion materials to the global aerospace manufacturing chain.

Erik Buschmann, Chief Operating Officer of Airbus China, told CarCaijing (ID: carcaijing) that over 50% of the work packages Airbus procures in China are manufactured by Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), which has become the second-largest non-engine supplier to Airbus globally.

Low-altitude economy: A new opportunity of the era

Airbus's civil aircraft are familiar sights, often seen by passengers during air travel. Perhaps less known is that Airbus is also a leader in the helicopter sector. According to the "Civil Helicopter Market Forecast for China (2023-2032)" released by the Aviation Industry Corporation, by the end of 2022, the size of China's civil helicopter fleet was 1,037 aircraft, with Airbus helicopters accounting for over 300, or 33% of the total.

Comparing this figure with more mature helicopter markets such as the United States, the "Global Civil Helicopter Market Research and Analysis" report indicates that the U.S. civil helicopter fleet size reaches 5,778 aircraft, suggesting that China's civil helicopter market still has tremendous potential for growth.

The future is a global competition in the low-altitude economy, hence the strong signal from the state, top to bottom, earnestly calling at the 2024 Two Sessions for "actively building low-altitude economy and other growth engines, and fostering emerging and future industries."

Both the government's firm determination to develop the low-altitude economy and the increasingly widespread application of the low-altitude industry suggest that there is an opportunity for resonance between the policy and industry ends of the low-altitude economy, with the next new trillion-dollar pillar industry being nurtured.

In this regard, Guillaume Faury, CEO of Airbus China, stated to CarCaijing (ID: carcaijing) that the potential of China's helicopter market is enormous. Airbus wishes to invest more resources to support China's further development of the low-altitude economy with products that offer multifunctionality, rapid response, high adaptability, and cost-effectiveness.The development of the low-altitude economy is concentrated in the helicopter market and is also focused on electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), known for their "flying taxi" reputation, which is an emerging field.

The Airbus CityAirbus NextGen prototype made its first public appearance in March 2024 and completed power-on tests. Currently, the CityAirbus NextGen prototype is undergoing ground testing in preparation for its maiden flight.

Airbus is also working closely with partners worldwide to jointly develop the eVTOL ecosystem. In collaboration with partners, they have conducted multiple test flights using their latest Airbus H135 helicopter in Osaka, Japan, simulating the flight parameters of the CityAirbus NextGen and testing new navigation technologies.

eVTOLs are not only more sustainable electric vehicles but may also be applied to unmanned flight, suggesting that future aircraft may no longer require pilots. However, in the short term, Airbus considers unmanned flight to be a distant prospect and not the current focus.

Fu Li revealed to the travel industry (ID: carcajing) that Airbus's positioning for eVTOL is not yet determined, "We have not yet decided whether it will enter the market as a product, continue to be developed as a prototype, or undergo in-depth research and development on other platforms. We still view it as an emerging product, technology, and concept."

Xu Gang added that public acceptance is crucial for creating a viable commercial market. eVTOLs need to bring added value to society and benefit the public, rather than serving only a select few.

Despite a cautious approach to eVTOLs, what is clear for Airbus is that the low-altitude economy is a natural direction for future development and could be the starting point for new collaborations. China's low-altitude economy has tremendous growth potential and technological advantages in eVTOL, and Airbus is considering exploring potential opportunities for cooperation with Chinese partners, looking forward to a "win-win" outcome in the low-altitude domain.